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January 6, 2004
Vol. 7 No. 1

In this issue:

1. Constitutional Issues
2. Kurds and Ways
3. Scan and Pan
4. Quick Hits
5. New at Reason Online - The Silence of the CEOs
6. Reason's print edition
7. News and Events

1. Constitutional Issues

Afghanistan has a new constitution, and if reports are accurate that every party to it is somewhat dissatisfied with the document, then perhaps that country's future is bright. Certainly, no single faction appears to have run away with the process. The question is whether little disagreements will fester into open conflict with the Kabul government, as is the Afghan pattern.

Both the promise and the peril can be seen in the simple move to include languages other than Pashtu to the list of the country's official languages. This change perturbed the Pashtuns, but elated the Uzbek and Tajik segments of the population. Never mind that the change will make little difference on the ground; it has real symbolic import because it suggests that unity and equality are more important than zero-sum factionalism.

Of course, the pull of factionalism remains strong, and many other questions remain. How will religious leaders co-exist with a government that maintains its own secular judiciary? Is peace really in the best interests of warlords whose power derives from wartime chaos and command? Will elections six months hence add legitimacy to the central government or usher in elements bent on destroying it?

Almost any outcome remains possible, which does not seem so bad considering where Afghanistan was a few years ago.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/01/04/international1452EST0521.DTL

2. Kurds and Ways

Factionalism is on prominent display in Iraq as the U.S. confronts the reality that a semi-autonomous Kurdish enclave can only be prevented by force. The U.S. decision to allow Kurds to maintain their autonomy is being spun as resulting from a lack of time to prepare for any other option; the approaching deadline for Iraqi self-rule is June 30. U.S. officials are telling reporters that once Iraqis are in control, all forms of federalism will be back on the table.

But it is extremely doubtful that once Kurds establish some level of sovereignty they will be willing to accept a rollback. In fact, there remains significant support among Kurds for full independence. As it is, violent clashes with Arabs and Turkmen have taken place in Kirkuk recently, and U.S. forces have raided the offices of Kurdish political parties as a likely reminder of who remains in charge.

This show of force may be enough to ward off civil war for now, but the Kurdish issue will remain a thorny problem for the Bush administration deep into the election year.

http://www.iht.com/articles/123622.htm

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Articles.asp?Article=70825&Sn=WORL

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/6E7E9CF1-89B7-448A-AF0B-55D78D9E54D2.htm

3. Flights of Judgment

The repeated cancellation of overseas flights with U.S. destinations has the hallmark of incomplete intelligence almost wholly derived from electronic eavesdropping. While it is certainly better to have some information than none, this dependence on so-called "signals intel" points up the continuing need for more human-based intelligence. In sum, it would be nice to get inside various terrorist plots instead of trying to sniff them out, intercept by intercept, from the outside.

Let's also hope that the various reverse screenings, delays, and cancellations were part of a chance to snag some bad guys rather than a bureaucratic urge to do something. Intelligence-gathering sources and methods may have been exposed by making these moves, which means Western intelligence could be even more in the dark in the future if the terrorists are as resourceful as they are portrayed.

Meanwhile, FBI demands for guests lists from Las Vegas hotels confirms that wholesale data-mining for terrorists will ensnare innocent members of the public for years to come with only a limited chance that actual targets will be uncovered.

http://news.google.com/url?ntc=0MZA1&q=http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml%3Ftype%3DtopNews%26storyID%3D433143%26section%3Dnews

http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.asp?section=Breaking&storyId=811136&tw=wn_wire_story

4. Quick Hits

Quote of the Week

"They didn't like the way we were dancing, apparently." -- Alex Lifeson, guitarist for the rock band Rush, on his New Year's Eve arrest at a Florida hotel. Lifeson, born Alex Zivojinovich, faces several felony charges as a result of a fracas with police in Naples.

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/florida/MGARW2N50PD.html

Garbage In, Garbage Out

Computers wrongly take the fall for the bizarro Bowl Championship Series, which failed to produce a clear-cut national college football champion. (Unless, that is, you're an LSU alum.)

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FBC_BCS_FUTURE?SITE=NVLAS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Croc Stunter

Aussie croc celeb Steve Irwin is in the crosshairs for including his one-month-old son in a croc-feeding stunt. Irwin maintains his son was never in any danger.

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,8325426%255E2902,00.html

Couch Computing

Hold onto your remotes, the WinTel gang is driving straight for the living room with the aim of putting easy-to-use PCs where TVs used to be.

http://money.cnn.com/services/tickerheadlines/for5/200401050046DOWJONESDJONLINE000029_FORTUNE5.htm

5. New at Reason Online

6. The Print Edition

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7. News and Events

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